Data science, intelligence and future analysis
Manijeh Ramsheh; mohammad hasan maleki; narges sarlak; monireh falahat bangdeh
Abstract
Fintech and its entrepreneurial opportunities have the ability to play an effective role in the development of the financial industry. Therefore, it is necessary to make a correct and effective policy in this area to identify its probable future. This study is exploratory in terms of purpose and practical ...
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Fintech and its entrepreneurial opportunities have the ability to play an effective role in the development of the financial industry. Therefore, it is necessary to make a correct and effective policy in this area to identify its probable future. This study is exploratory in terms of purpose and practical in terms of orientation. Interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data. 28 drivers were extracted by reviewing the background and interviewing experts. In order to screen the propellants, expert questionnaire and fuzzy Delphi method were used. Then the propellants screened were ranked through the priority assessment questionnaire and the developed COPRAS technique. The two drivers of the development of smart contracts in the financial industry and the tendency of financial institutions towards open innovation had the highest priority and were used to write research scenarios. Based on these two drivers, 4 scenarios of the era of pristine opportunities, the era of conservative managers, the era of dilapidated infrastructure and the ice age were developed. Then, using the MABAC technique, the scenario of the age of dilapidated infrastructures was selected as the possible scenario of the research. Research proposals were proposed based on priority drivers and possible scenarios. Government support, providing sufficient funds in order to create the necessary infrastructure for the development of smart contracts by banks or establishing a cooperative relationship between banks and financial institutions, fair legislation, development of regtechs, creating compatibility between current systems with new technologies were the most important practical proposals of the study.IntroductionThe financial industry includes a set of institutions and organizations that allocate credit and equip resources. The development of economic activities requires investment, and investment also requires the provision of financial resources, which is an important task for the financial industry. Therefore, the development of the financial industry is the driver of economic development. Therefore, the increasing need for new technologies to improve performance and increase efficiency in the financial industry is strongly felt. One of the working models affecting the financial industry is fintech (Qaemi & et al., 2017). Fintech is a field that uses innovative technologies to provide all services of the financial industry with greater speed and transparency and lower cost while maintaining security and quality (Zavolokina et al., 2016). According to reports, global fintech investments have grown from $9 billion in 2010 to $25 billion in 2016. Fintech's market share this year was not even 1%, but it is expected to increase to 35% by 2023 (Koshesh Kordsholi & et al., 2021). In Iran, one of the priorities of the sixth development plan is the issue of financing and expansion of financial instruments, which the financial and banking actors have encouraged to support fintech startups in order to realize innovation and expand their services (Qaemi & et al., 2017). But the fact is that fintech in Iran is behind the rest of the world. In iran, due to several problems, including legal challenges, technology problems, financing, etc., fintech businesses are not growing and there are many entrepreneurial opportunities in this field that have not been addressed. Thus, the current research seeks to answer the following questions:What are the key drivers affecting the future of fintech entrepreneurial opportunities in Iran?What is the degree of priority of the key drivers affecting the future of fintech entrepreneurial opportunities in Iran?What are the plausible future scenarios of fintech entrepreneurial opportunities in Iran?What is the possible future scenario of fintech entrepreneurial opportunities in Iran?Literature ReviewFintech can be considered as any innovative idea that improves financial services processes by providing technological solutions according to different business situations) Suryono & et al., 2020). Fintech startups are looking for new approaches to business models, improving customer experience and new approaches that lead to service changes and are trying to enter financial systems and challenge traditional financial institutions (Gomber et al., 2018). If the context and the possibility of growth and application of entrepreneurial opportunities hidden in the field of fintech, which are in their maturity stage, are provided; It will follow the increasing economic progress of the countries.Uncertainty about the future of organizations prompts managers to look for new tools and methods to determine future situations and create the future. Future research is a systematic way to look at the long-term future in any field and draw it, the main purpose of which is to know the new structures, mechanisms, opportunities and processes and to determine the sectors that have more efficiency. Understanding and applying futurist theories and methods enables individuals and groups to more usefully anticipate the future and shape it to a greater extent based on their preferences (Dator et al., 2019).MethodologyIn this research, four quantitative methods, fuzzy Delphi, entropy, developed COPRAS and MABAC technique were used. Also, to develop believable research scenarios, the qualitative method of the consultation workshop was used. The theoretical community of this research is 10 members of the academic staff of the university, fintech experts, managers of fintech businesses, experts of fintech associations and senior experts of the central bank in the regulatory field. The sampling method of the present study is judgmental and based on the expertise of individuals in the field of fintech. The steps of the current research are: 1) background review and interviews with experts to identify drivers affecting the future of fintech entrepreneurial opportunities in Iran; 2) Screening research drivers with the fuzzy Delphi technique; 3) prioritizing the final drives with the developed COPRAS method; 4) Compilation of plausible future scenarios of Iran's fintech entrepreneurship opportunities using a consultation workshop (participation of 7 experts); 5) Selecting a possible research scenario using the MABAC technique.ResultsAt first, 28 drivers were extracted through reviewing financial technology-oriented backgrounds and interviewing experts. Then, with the application of expert questionnaire and fuzzy Delphi technique, 15 drivers were removed from the calculations and 13 drivers were selected to extract the effect model of drivers. Based on the output of COPRAS technique, the drivers for the development of smart contracts in the financial industry are the tendency of financial institutions towards open innovation, the variety of financing methods and the attitude of the regulator towards fintechs, respectively, they have the most importance in terms of influencing the future of fintech entrepreneurial opportunities. The two drivers of smart contract development and the trend of financial institutions towards open innovation were used to map research scenarios. Considering that for each driver, two opposite situations can be set, four scenarios were developed, which are: the era of pristine opportunities, the era of conservative managers, the era of dilapidated infrastructure, and the ice age. In the following, MABAC technique was used to select the possible research scenario. The ranking of the research scenarios in terms of 3 selected indicators is such that the scenario of the age of dilapidated infrastructures is the most likely research scenario. The ice age scenarios, the conservative managers era scenario, and the pristine opportunities era scenario were ranked next.ConclusionThe trend of financial institutions towards open innovation in the scenario of the age of worn out infrastructure shows that the development of digital technologies has gradually created interest in the managers of this industry and has improved their attitude towards themselves. But the lack of development of smart contracts in the financial industry in this future has several reasons. Among the reasons for this lack of development, we can mention the lack of necessary infrastructure for the development of information technology, which is mainly due to the lack of support from the government and the relevant ministry and their lack of attention to the importance of learning information technology. In addition, banks should also provide the necessary funds in order to create the necessary infrastructure for the development of smart contracts, and if there is a heavy cost, establish a cooperative relationship between the banks and financial institutions of the country along with government support to reduce the cost and implement it in a tangible way. Another important discussion in this field is that fair regulation is necessary for the spread of smart contracts. Strengthening regtechs through science and technology parks and growth centers can also help. Another important reason for not developing smart contracts is the incompatibility of current systems with new technologies, which prompts managers of financial institutions to change the system and make them compatible. Lack of sufficient training for financial industry activists can also be another factor for this lack of development.Keywords: Future Study, Driver, Scenario Planning, Entrepreneurial Opportunities, Fintech
